overnight drift: buy ASML at close, exit next close (guidance: ASML shares jumped 6 percent after raising its 2026 financial outlook, reinforcing investor confidence in AI-related semiconductor demand strength.) [downgraded: qty 0 at current price]
The entry rationale leaned entirely on a secondhand catalyst (ASML's guidance beat) rather than any NVDA-specific signal, and the trade barely eked out +0.18% after swinging to -2.77% unrealized — the "FRESH bullish" verdict didn't hold up under actual price action, it just got bailed out by a bounce. Fix: require the entry rule to confirm the sympathy-play thesis with NVDA's own intraday momentum/relative strength (e.g., NVDA must also be green vs. sector ETF at signal time) instead of firing on a peer's headline alone, and tighten the stop so a -2.77% drawdown doesn't get labeled "FRESH" if the underlying never actually participates in the move.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
