🚨 Alert #196 Mon Jul-20 13:00:19
ASML reported strong Q2 2026 earnings with raised guidance and confirmed Intel is mass-producing chips using its high-NA EUV machines.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy ASML (earnings: ASML reported strong Q2 2026 earnings with raised guidance and confirmed Intel is mass-producing chips using its high-NA EUV machines.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy TSM (earnings: ASML reported strong Q2 2026 earnings with raised guidance and confirmed Intel is mass-producing chips using its high-NA EUV machines.) |
| S4 | ASML | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: buy ASML at close, exit next close (earnings: ASML reported strong Q2 2026 earnings with raised guidance and confirmed Intel is mass-producing chips using its high-NA EUV machines.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ▲ long | 1 | failed | |||
| S3 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | failed | |||
| S4 | ASML | ▲ long | 1 | 1737.70 | 1806.63 | +68.93 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML S4 | +4.96% | -0.35% | Rationale vs. outcome: The thesis — post-earnings drift on a strong beat with raised guidance plus a structural catalyst (Intel high-NA EUV production) — played out cleanly: +3.97% realized with only -0.35% adverse excursion, so the entry logic was validated, not lucky. The one blemish is that you captured 4.0% of a 4.96% peak, which is an exit issue, but the entry itself under-monetized a high-conviction signal. Improvement: Add a catalyst-strength tier to the entry rule — when the earnings event includes both raised guidance and a material structural announcement (new customer/product milestone), size the position 2-3x the baseline unit. A 1-share position on a signal this clean means your verdict threshold treats all "buy" signals equally, wasting your best setups. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.