Mon Aug-31 19:08:46
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1942 Wed Aug-05 15:31:08
Palantir paid just £2m in UK corporation tax, Wayve and Uber move closer to London 'robotaxis' - ShinyShiny
Palantir shares surged after CEO Alex Karp forecast worldwide revenues would nearly double to $8 billion this year.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | PLTR | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long PLTR (earnings: Palantir shares surged after CEO Alex Karp forecast worldwide revenues would nearly double to $8 billion this year.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +0.01% |
| S4 | PLTR | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long PLTR at close, exit next close (earnings: Palantir shares surged after CEO Alex Karp forecast worldwide revenues would nearly double to $8 billion this year.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted long, verdict now PRICED (-2.64% since close, 324m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | PLTR | ▲ long | 6 | 161.59 | 158.56 | -18.18 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR S1 | +0.12% | -2.01% | The bullish signal failed over the holding period: PLTR never rose more than +0.12% after entry and fell steadily, so there was essentially no favorable move to capture. Timing evidence points to a stale catalyst — the "surge" cited in the rationale had already occurred, with price actually down -0.98% from prior close and fading (-0.51% last 30m) at entry. The exit near -1.88% is close to the worst unrealized (-2.01%), but with a best of only +0.12% there was nothing meaningful available; the dominant factor is a bad/late signal, not exit execution. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.