Mon Aug-31 19:07:44
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1939 Wed Aug-05 15:21:17
Taiwan Tests War Plans to Thwart Chinese Invasion
Taiwan has commenced 10 days of military and civil defense exercises to deter a potential Chinese invasion, raising geopolitical risks for the island's semiconductor industry.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.31% | -1.65% | 411.00 | 425.46 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -6.12% | -2.58% | 471.65 | 499.71 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +4.42% | +0.59% | 215.00 | 222.10 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +2.72% | -0.43% | 871.80 | 928.68 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.27% | -1.84% | 30.02 | 31.69 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.52% | -1.53% | 156.30 | 162.68 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.98% | +0.15% | 414.40 | 426.25 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.82% | -1.57% | 1673.00 | 1724.90 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short TSM (regulatory: Taiwan has commenced 10 days of military and civil defense exercises to deter a potential Chinese invasion, raising geopolitical risks for the island's semiconductor industry.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long TSM, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -0.77% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +4.42% · Δ 30m +0.59% · px 221.31 (prev 211.94) → close -0.48% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short TSM at close, exit next close (regulatory: Taiwan has commenced 10 days of military and civil defense exercises to deter a potential Chinese invasion, raising geopolitical risks for the island's semiconductor industry.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 65 long (decision 7888) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-08-06] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.