Mon Aug-31 19:09:01
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1711 Mon Aug-03 20:20:33
China Is Not the Solution to the US Chipflation Problem
Global semiconductor spending is projected to reach 1.25% of world GDP driven by AI demand, enabling Nvidia, TSMC, and ASML to raise prices due to supply constraints.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +3.60% | +0.03% | 197.69 | 208.66 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.24% | +0.19% | 143.27 | 152.20 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.93% | -0.15% | 457.76 | 495.13 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.27% | -0.16% | 1592.04 | 1654.25 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.63% | +0.06% | 390.66 | 409.80 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.60% | -0.09% | 376.04 | 392.45 | |
| peer MU | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.21% | -0.15% | 777.38 | 840.85 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +3.60% · Δ 30m +0.03% · px 207.97 (prev 200.75) → close -0.86% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MU | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close +1.01% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +3.60% · Δ 30m +0.03% · px 207.97 (prev 200.75) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.