🚨 Alert #168 Fri Jul-17 18:40:13
Amazon's AWS custom silicon business has surpassed $1 billion in annual revenue, signaling successful scaling of its in-house chip efforts for cloud workloads.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy AMZN (product: Amazon's AWS custom silicon business has surpassed $1 billion in annual revenue, signaling successful scaling of its in-house chip efforts for cloud workloads.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close -0.18% |
| S4 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy AMZN at close, exit next close (product: Amazon's AWS custom silicon business has surpassed $1 billion in annual revenue, signaling successful scaling of its in-house chip efforts for cloud workloads.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 buy AMZN exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ▲ long | 4 | 248.07 | 247.76 | -1.24 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S1 | -0.01% | -0.57% | Entry vs. outcome: The "FRESH" verdict was dubious — AWS custom silicon crossing $1B is a slow-burn, widely-telegraphed story, and $1B is immaterial noise against Amazon's ~$600B revenue base, so there was no catalyst to move the stock. The price action confirmed it: the position never went positive (best +0.0%, worst -0.57%) and bled out to a flat -1.24, i.e., you paid spread for nothing. Improvement: Add a materiality filter to the entry rule — require the cited catalyst to represent a meaningful fraction of the company's revenue/earnings (e.g., ≥1-2% of trailing revenue) or be a genuine surprise vs. consensus; alternatively, tighten the FRESH verdict to reject milestone/scaling stories that were already reported weeks earlier. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.