🚨 Alert #1651 Mon Aug-03 14:50:59
Nvidia and Microsoft executives publicly advocated for open-source AI models and signed a joint letter with Meta and Palantir, opposing calls by OpenAI and Anthropic for stricter controls on AI development.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.52% | +0.27% | 197.69 | 208.66 | |
| peer META | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +5.34% | +3.80% | 562.45 | 597.04 | |
| MSFT | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +4.98% | +3.00% | 472.09 | 491.29 | |
| GOOGL | · unclear | PRICED | +4.70% | +3.11% | 361.61 | 375.97 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -3.66% | -1.75% | 457.76 | 495.13 | |
| PLTR | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.41% | -0.29% | 124.61 | 144.72 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (regulatory: Nvidia and Microsoft executives publicly advocated for open-source AI models and signed a joint letter with Meta and Palantir, opposing calls by OpenAI and Anthropic for stricter controls on AI development.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | META | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +5.34% · Δ 30m +3.80% · px 586.46 (prev 556.71) → close +0.67% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (regulatory: Nvidia and Microsoft executives publicly advocated for open-source AI models and signed a joint letter with Meta and Palantir, opposing calls by OpenAI and Anthropic for stricter controls on AI development.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 75 short (decision 6460) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-08-04] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ▲ long | 5 | 199.62 | 206.25 | +33.15 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S1 | +4.53% | -0.05% | Signal: Right — the bullish call played out, with the trade going up +4.53% at peak and essentially never underwater (worst -0.05%). Whether the open-source-advocacy news was the actual driver can't be verified from this data. Timing: Good — entry at 199.62 was below the prior close (200.75), so the move had not already happened; the near-zero worst unrealized confirms entry was close to the local bottom. Exit: Captured most of what was available — realized +3.32% (+$33.15) versus a best unrealized of +4.53%, leaving roughly a quarter of the peak move on the table. Dominant factor: a correct signal with clean timing; the exit was the only modest leak. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.