🚨 Alert #164 Fri Jul-17 18:10:02
Amazon reported strong AWS growth and announced significant AI infrastructure investments and product expansions, including partnerships with OpenAI and custom silicon advancements.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy AMZN (product: Amazon reported strong AWS growth and announced significant AI infrastructure investments and product expansions, including partnerships with OpenAI and custom silicon advancements.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -1.68% · Δ 30m +0.29% · px 394.36 (prev 401.10) → close +0.05% |
| S4 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy AMZN at close, exit next close (product: Amazon reported strong AWS growth and announced significant AI infrastructure investments and product expansions, including partnerships with OpenAI and custom silicon advancements.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 buy AMZN exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ▲ long | 4 | 248.64 | 247.80 | -3.36 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S1 | +0.16% | -0.80% | Comparison: The entry treated widely-covered earnings/AI headlines (AWS growth, OpenAI partnership) as FRESH, but the price action says the market had already digested it — the trade never got more than +0.16% in your favor and bled to a -0.8% drawdown before exiting flat-to-negative. A "strong catalyst" that produces zero follow-through is the classic signature of buying priced-in news. Improvement: Tighten the FRESH verdict to require both recency and that the stock hasn't already moved on the news — e.g., reject entries if the ticker is already up more than ~2% since the story broke, or demand intraday momentum confirmation (price above VWAP / making new session highs) before triggering the buy. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.