🚨 Alert #1631 Mon Aug-03 13:04:59
A rare joint US-Japan currency intervention strengthened the yen, causing the Nikkei 225 to fall and negatively impacting Japanese export-dependent manufacturers including major semiconductor firms.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.42% | -0.55% | 390.66 | 409.80 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | -10.31% | -1.45% | 777.38 | 840.85 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -4.48% | -0.77% | 457.76 | 495.13 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | PRICED | -3.74% | -0.49% | 143.27 | 152.20 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.31% | -0.90% | 1592.04 | 1654.25 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.74% | -0.71% | 197.69 | 208.66 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.02% | -0.92% | 27.75 | 28.90 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.71% | -0.83% | 376.04 | 392.45 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short TSM (regulatory: A rare joint US-Japan currency intervention strengthened the yen, causing the Nikkei 225 to fall and negatively impacting Japanese export-dependent manufacturers including major semiconductor firms.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +3.91% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short TSM at close, exit next close (regulatory: A rare joint US-Japan currency intervention strengthened the yen, causing the Nikkei 225 to fall and negatively impacting Japanese export-dependent manufacturers including major semiconductor firms.) |
📈 Trades
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S4 | +6.09% | -3.39% | Signal: partially right — the short was up as much as +6.09% unrealized at some point while open, so the predicted downside did materialize intraday, but price fully reversed to close ~2.6% above entry. Exit: this is the dominant factor — the mechanical hold-to-next-close exit surrendered the entire +6.09% favorable move and realized -21.12, near the worst unrealized (-3.39%). Timing: the data is ambiguous — decision-time context showed TSM down -1.42% from prev close (403.31), yet the fill was 406.18, above prev close, so the entry price and context don't reconcile and I can't cleanly assess how much of the move was already priced in at fill. Bluntly: the exit rule, not the thesis, caused the loss — the trade was substantially profitable while open and the fixed exit gave it all back. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.