Mon Aug-31 20:12:06
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1611 Mon Aug-03 13:00:45
Apple slides as supply shortages cloud growth outlook
Apple shares dropped nearly 10% after CEO Tim Cook warned that significant component shortages are limiting growth and depleting inventory reserves.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AAPL | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -6.57% | +0.19% | 302.90 | 311.92 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | -10.31% | -1.13% | 777.38 | 840.85 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -4.48% | -0.55% | 457.76 | 495.13 | |
| peer NVDA | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.74% | -0.53% | 197.69 | 208.66 | |
| TSM | · unclear | PRICED | -1.42% | -0.30% | 390.66 | 409.80 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.71% | -0.54% | 376.04 | 392.45 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -6.57% · Δ 30m +0.19% · px 311.52 (prev 333.43) → close -2.61% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long NVDA (guidance: Apple shares dropped nearly 10% after CEO Tim Cook warned that significant component shortages are limiting growth and depleting inventory reserves.) |
| S4 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -6.57% · Δ 30m +0.19% · px 311.52 (prev 333.43) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | NVDA | ▲ long | 5 | failed |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.