taipeitimes.com · Fri Jul-17 17:00:00 published · Fri Jul-17 17:49:40 alerted · alerted 49m after publish · read at www.taipeitimes.com ↗ · product · mat 65
TSMC announced plans to build three additional advanced packaging facilities in Phase II of the Chiayi Science Park to strengthen regional manufacturing resilience.
verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy NVDA (product: TSMC announced plans to build three additional advanced packaging facilities in Phase II of the Chiayi Science Park to strengthen regional manufacturing resilience.)
overnight drift: buy TSM at close, exit next close (product: TSMC announced plans to build three additional advanced packaging facilities in Phase II of the Chiayi Science Park to strengthen regional manufacturing resilience.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted buy but open S4 sell TSM exiting 2026-07-20]
The entry rationale is weak: a TSMC capacity announcement about packaging facilities in Chiayi is a multi-year supply-chain story, not a fresh catalyst for NVDA specifically, so tagging it FRESH and buying a second-order beneficiary was a stretch. The outcome bears this out — the trade never got more than +0.33% in your favor and bled to -2.03% before exiting for a loss, exactly what you'd expect from news with no near-term earnings or demand implication. Concrete fix: require the catalyst to name the traded ticker directly (or add a "derivative exposure" penalty that downgrades FRESH to STALE/NEUTRAL when the subject company differs from the traded one), so long-horizon supplier capex news can't trigger entries by itself.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
