🚨 Alert #148 Fri Jul-17 17:10:09
TSMC reported record quarterly profits and increased its US investment commitment to $265 billion, specifically expanding CoWoS advanced packaging capacity in Arizona to alleviate AI accelerator supply bottlenecks.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.46% | +1.04% | 387.71 | 403.82 | |
| counterparty NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.23% | -0.02% | 198.60 | 206.45 | |
| SMCI | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -0.83% | +1.26% | 23.40 | 25.16 | |
| peer AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.64% | +0.36% | 358.73 | 376.80 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +0.37% | +2.09% | 462.12 | 505.29 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +0.16% | +1.32% | 1709.45 | 1787.74 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy TSM (earnings: TSMC reported record quarterly profits and increased its US investment commitment to $265 billion, specifically expanding CoWoS advanced packaging capacity in Arizona to alleviate AI accelerator supply bottlenecks.) |
| S2 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -1.23% · Δ 30m -0.02% · px 204.84 (prev 207.40) → close -0.66% |
| S3 | AVGO | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> buy AVGO (earnings: TSMC reported record quarterly profits and increased its US investment commitment to $265 billion, specifically expanding CoWoS advanced packaging capacity in Arizona to alleviate AI accelerator supply bottlenecks.) |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: buy TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC reported record quarterly profits and increased its US investment commitment to $265 billion, specifically expanding CoWoS advanced packaging capacity in Arizona to alleviate AI accelerator supply bottlenecks.) [skipped at close: signal conflict — wanted buy but open S4 sell TSM exiting 2026-07-20] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 404.10 | 398.27 | -11.66 | closed |
| S3 | AVGO | ▲ long | 2 | 372.56 | 372.41 | -0.30 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +0.08% | -2.42% | Retrospective: The REPRICING verdict assumed the record earnings and capex news wasn't yet in the price, but the trade never got more than +0.08% in your favor — the market had already fully priced the headline and you bought the post-news top, then bled to -2.42% before exiting for a loss. Blunt take: "record profits" headlines on mega-cap names like TSM are absorbed within minutes, so this was momentum-chasing dressed up as a repricing thesis. Improvement: Add a filter to the REPRICING verdict requiring evidence the news is not yet reflected — e.g., only trigger if the stock has moved less than ~1.5% from the pre-announcement price, or delay entry until a pullback of at least 1% from the post-news high instead of buying at the headline print. |
| AVGO S3 | +1.18% | -0.70% | Entry vs. outcome: The rationale was second-order at best — TSMC's CoWoS expansion is a supply-chain tailwind for AVGO, but it's not AVGO-specific news, and the market treated it that way: the stock chopped sideways (+1.18%/-0.70% range) and the trade died as a scratch (-$0.30). A "FRESH" verdict on a supplier's capex announcement is generous; this was already-priced sector color, not a fresh catalyst for the traded ticker. Improvement: Tighten the verdict rule to require the catalyst to name the traded ticker directly (or a company where it's >20% of revenue exposure); demote second-order/supply-chain reads to STALE or require confirmation (e.g., relative-strength vs. SMH in the first 30 min) before entry. Alternatively, since MFE hit +1.18%, add a take-profit at ~+1% for low-conviction second-order entries instead of letting them round-trip to flat. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.