🚨 Alert #1407 Thu Jul-30 18:02:08
Microsoft shares surged nearly 17% after reporting fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations, driven by accelerating Azure growth and strong Copilot adoption.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +16.67% · Δ 30m +0.07% · px 455.65 (prev 390.54) → close -0.85% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long GOOGL (earnings: Microsoft shares surged nearly 17% after reporting fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations, driven by accelerating Azure growth and strong Copilot adoption.) |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +16.67% · Δ 30m +0.07% · px 455.65 (prev 390.54) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | GOOGL | ▲ long | 2 | 334.77 | 333.61 | -2.32 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL S3 | +0.10% | -0.81% | Signal (dominant factor): The bullish call was wrong — GOOGL never moved up meaningfully (max unrealized gain just +0.10%) and drifted lower. Note the rationale is a cross-ticker read-through: the catalyst was Microsoft's earnings, not Google's, and the data here can't confirm that MSFT strength should transfer to GOOGL — it evidently didn't during the hold. Timing: Not a case of chasing — GOOGL was slightly down (-0.55%) and flat over the prior 30m at decision time, so the move hadn't already happened; there was simply no move to catch. Exit: The -0.35% realized loss sits between the best (+0.10%) and worst (-0.81%) unrealized, so the exit left little on the table — with only +0.10% ever available, no exit could have salvaged this. The trade failed on signal, plainly. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.