Mon Aug-31 19:05:57
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🚨 Alert #1379 Thu Jul-30 17:21:23
Microsoft's $15 Billion Capex Cut Isn't a Cut at All - Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)
Microsoft clarified that a reported $15 billion drop in capital expenditures was due to an accounting change in asset useful life rather than a reduction in actual AI infrastructure spending, confirming continued growth in capex.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary MSFT | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +16.58% | +1.13% | 425.60 | 458.17 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +13.09% | +0.41% | 440.89 | 499.88 | |
| META | · unclear | PRICED | -9.09% | -0.11% | 526.00 | 544.23 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +7.80% | +0.72% | 381.99 | 412.77 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | PRICED | +5.23% | +0.26% | 232.55 | 258.50 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +4.53% | +1.04% | 374.22 | 391.00 | |
| NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.97% | +0.23% | 192.16 | 197.05 | |
| peer GOOGL | · unclear | FRESH | -0.75% | +0.19% | 331.43 | 337.96 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +16.58% · Δ 30m +1.13% · px 455.27 (prev 390.54) → close -0.77% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for GOOGL → close -0.20% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +16.58% · Δ 30m +1.13% · px 455.27 (prev 390.54) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.