verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> buy AMD (analyst: Multiple Wall Street firms raised price targets for AMD, with KeyBanc setting a new street-high of $725, citing strong AI and data center demand.)
overnight drift: buy AMD at close, exit next close (analyst: Multiple Wall Street firms raised price targets for AMD, with KeyBanc setting a new street-high of $725, citing strong AI and data center demand.) [skipped at close: duplicate — already holding S4 buy AMD exiting 2026-07-20]
Retrospective: The entry treated a cluster of analyst PT hikes as a "repricing" catalyst, but analyst upgrades are lagging indicators that are typically priced in within minutes — the outcome (+0.14%, with symmetric ±1.3% excursions) shows the trade was pure noise with no directional edge. The rationale confused news volume with new information.
Improvement: Downgrade "analyst price target raises" so they can't trigger a REPRICING verdict alone; require confirmation such as a same-day price/volume breakout or an accompanying fundamental catalyst (guidance raise, contract win). Alternatively, add a minimum expected-move threshold to entries — if the thesis can't plausibly justify >2% move, skip it, because a strategy whose best case was +1.28% is paying full trading risk for coin-flip payoffs.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
