Mon Aug-31 19:07:00
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1248 Wed Jul-29 21:23:10
Microsoft crushes Q3 earnings expectations as AI business hits $37 billion run rate
Microsoft reported fiscal Q3 2026 earnings that beat revenue and EPS expectations, driven by strong Azure growth and a $37 billion annual AI revenue run rate, alongside a $9.7 billion deal with IREN.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long MSFT (earnings: Microsoft reported fiscal Q3 2026 earnings that beat revenue and EPS expectations, driven by strong Azure growth and a $37 billion annual AI revenue run rate, alongside a $9.7 billion deal with IREN.) [skipped: post-close — wanted long MSFT after the 2026-07-29 session close; same-day exit window gone] → close -2.08% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for GOOGL → close +0.50% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long MSFT at close, exit next close (earnings: Microsoft reported fiscal Q3 2026 earnings that beat revenue and EPS expectations, driven by strong Azure growth and a $37 billion annual AI revenue run rate, alongside a $9.7 billion deal with IREN.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted long, verdict now PRICED (+15.68% since close, 1412m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.