🚨 Alert #1203 Wed Jul-29 19:10:22
China's Shanghai Yuliangsheng has begun production of deep ultraviolet lithography machines, overcoming US export bans and threatening the monopoly of Western suppliers like ASML.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary ASML | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.04% | +1.61% | 1531.35 | 1613.00 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.83% | +1.42% | 708.59 | 835.51 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.80% | +1.15% | 25.22 | 28.35 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.45% | +1.36% | 420.63 | 458.46 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.69% | +0.81% | 188.89 | 197.56 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.66% | +1.64% | 368.30 | 390.77 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.29% | +1.18% | 143.70 | 164.29 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -0.19% | +0.96% | 364.85 | 384.61 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short ASML (regulatory: China's Shanghai Yuliangsheng has begun production of deep ultraviolet lithography machines, overcoming US export bans and threatening the monopoly of Western suppliers like ASML.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short NVDA (regulatory: China's Shanghai Yuliangsheng has begun production of deep ultraviolet lithography machines, overcoming US export bans and threatening the monopoly of Western suppliers like ASML.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S3 short NVDA exiting 2026-07-29] → close -1.57% |
| S4 | ASML | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short ASML at close, exit next close (regulatory: China's Shanghai Yuliangsheng has begun production of deep ultraviolet lithography machines, overcoming US export bans and threatening the monopoly of Western suppliers like ASML.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | ASML | ▼ short | 1 | 1581.81 | 1557.52 | +24.29 | closed |
| S4 | ASML | ▼ short | 1 | 1557.50 | 1652.35 | -94.85 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML S1 | +1.51% | -2.26% | Signal: right. The bearish call played out — ASML fell ~1.5% from entry to exit, and the price context (+0.04% vs prior close) shows the move had not already occurred by entry; if anything, the +1.61% pop in the prior 30m gave a slightly better short entry. Exit: near-optimal. Realized P&L of +24.29 (~+1.54%) matches or slightly exceeds the best unrealized of +1.51%, meaning the exit captured essentially all of the available favorable move. Dominant factor: correct signal with full capture — though note the trade sat through a -2.26% adverse excursion before working, which was larger than the eventual gain; the data here doesn't say how long that drawdown lasted or whether it was early or late in the hold. |
| ASML S4 | +1.44% | -7.58% | Signal: wrong. The short thesis (China DUV competition pressuring ASML) didn't play out over the holding period — the stock rallied hard, with the trade only ever +1.44% in favor versus -7.58% against. Timing: at decision time the stock was roughly flat vs. prior close (+0.04%), though the fill at 1557.5 came ~1.6% below the decision price, meaning a chunk of any downside had already occurred between decision and entry; the data here doesn't show whether that gap was the news being priced in. Exit: the -94.85 (-6.1%) realized loss sits near the worst unrealized (-7.58%), so the exit gave back nearly everything and captured none of the brief +1.44% that was available — but the dominant factor is simply a wrong-direction signal, not exit mechanics. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.