Mon Aug-31 20:13:15
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1151 Wed Jul-29 15:40:50
Wall Street Picks AI Winners and Losers as Credit Swaps Surge
Credit default swap costs for major AI-focused tech companies including Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet have surged to multi-year highs, signaling increased investor concern over debt burdens and AI investment returns.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.86% | -0.54% | 188.89 | 197.56 | |
| AMZN | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.48% | -0.41% | 224.70 | 232.52 | |
| TSLA | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.40% | -0.55% | 293.83 | 308.84 | |
| META | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.64% | -0.01% | 521.74 | 599.09 | |
| AAPL | · unclear | FRESH | +0.35% | -0.44% | 337.73 | 344.32 | |
| GOOGL | ▼ bearish | FRESH | -0.24% | +0.03% | 329.81 | 342.09 | |
| peer MSFT | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.14% | +0.47% | 389.74 | 425.60 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.86% · Δ 30m -0.54% · px 191.38 (prev 197.01) → close -0.39% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short MSFT (analyst: Credit default swap costs for major AI-focused tech companies including Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet have surged to multi-year highs, signaling increased investor concern over debt burdens and AI investment returns.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short MSFT exiting 2026-07-29] → close -0.69% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.86% · Δ 30m -0.54% · px 191.38 (prev 197.01) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.