verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (partnership: Nvidia and SK Hynix signed a historic memory deal involving HBM supply, co-development, and a 2-gigawatt AI data center project in Korea.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S3 short NVDA decision 4267]
overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (partnership: Nvidia and SK Hynix signed a historic memory deal involving HBM supply, co-development, and a 2-gigawatt AI data center project in Korea.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 85 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 4368) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-07-29]
Signal: Wrong over the holding window — the position was never meaningfully positive (best unrealized -0.04%), so the bullish partnership thesis didn't translate into price movement while held; note the hold was cut short by netting against an opposing short signal, so whether the thesis would have played out later is unresolved by this data. Timing: Entry at 197.28 was ~0.4% above prior close, so a small pop had already occurred, but the pre-entry move was modest enough that timing wasn't the main problem. Exit: The forced early close realized roughly the worst of a tight range (-0.25% vs. worst -0.23%), meaning nothing better was available to capture — the dominant factor is a signal that produced no upside during the window, compounded by an exit driven by signal conflict rather than the trade itself.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
