🚨 Alert #1035 Tue Jul-28 17:03:03
Broadcom signed a $200 billion MOU with Samsung for AI chip manufacturing and packaging, adding to a recent $30 billion deal with Apple, totaling over $230 billion in new partnership value.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AVGO | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +0.09% | +0.52% | 360.53 | 385.19 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -7.91% | +0.90% | 774.65 | 848.99 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -6.32% | +1.39% | 444.02 | 475.77 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -1.81% | +0.04% | 162.26 | 167.70 | |
| TSM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.55% | +0.61% | 381.24 | 395.36 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +0.94% | +0.70% | 193.21 | 198.53 | |
| counterparty AAPL | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.80% | +0.12% | 335.94 | 341.25 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AVGO | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long AVGO (partnership: Broadcom signed a $200 billion MOU with Samsung for AI chip manufacturing and packaging, adding to a recent $30 billion deal with Apple, totaling over $230 billion in new partnership value.) |
| S2 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AAPL (partnership: Broadcom signed a $200 billion MOU with Samsung for AI chip manufacturing and packaging, adding to a recent $30 billion deal with Apple, totaling over $230 billion in new partnership value.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long AAPL exiting 2026-07-28] → close +0.07% |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short NVDA (partnership: Broadcom signed a $200 billion MOU with Samsung for AI chip manufacturing and packaging, adding to a recent $30 billion deal with Apple, totaling over $230 billion in new partnership value.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short NVDA exiting 2026-07-28] → close -0.34% |
| S4 | AVGO | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long AVGO at close, exit next close (partnership: Broadcom signed a $200 billion MOU with Samsung for AI chip manufacturing and packaging, adding to a recent $30 billion deal with Apple, totaling over $230 billion in new partnership value.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AVGO | ▲ long | 2 | 383.95 | 383.76 | -0.38 | closed |
| S4 | AVGO | ▲ long | 2 | 383.87 | 372.14 | -23.46 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO S1 | +0.36% | -1.29% | Signal: Wrong, or at least never materialized — despite the $230B partnership headline, AVGO went nowhere, drifting more against the position (-1.29% worst) than for it (+0.36% best). Timing: Not the issue — the stock was only +0.09% from prior close at decision time, so the entry wasn't chasing an already-completed move. Exit: Reasonable given what was available — the -0.05% realized loss sits near flat, well above the worst drawdown, and only ~0.4% of upside was ever on the table. Dominant factor: signal failure — the market simply didn't reprice on this news while the trade was open. Whether it repriced later (i.e., the exit was premature relative to a longer horizon) can't be determined from this data. |
| AVGO S4 | +0.56% | -5.43% | Signal: wrong. The predicted overnight drift up on the partnership news didn't materialize — the stock fell ~3.1% from entry, and the best unrealized gain was only +0.56%, so there was never a meaningful move in the predicted direction. Timing: not the issue. Entry was only +0.09% above the prior close, so the trade wasn't chasing a move that had already happened. Exit: reasonable given the mechanical rule. The -3.06% realized loss sits well inside the -5.43% worst unrealized, so the fixed next-close exit actually avoided the trough; with only +0.56% ever available upside, no exit could have made this a winner. The dominant factor is plainly a failed signal — the market did not treat the partnership news as a positive catalyst. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.