Mon Aug-31 20:10:45
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #1026 Tue Jul-28 16:12:06
TSMC's Japan fab evacuates staff after strong earthquake
TSMC evacuated staff from its Kumamoto, Japan fabrication plant following a magnitude 7.1 earthquake, raising immediate concerns about operational continuity and supply chain disruptions.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -3.21% | +0.95% | 381.24 | 395.36 | |
| MU | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -9.39% | +0.83% | 774.65 | 848.99 | |
| AMD | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -8.71% | +0.37% | 444.02 | 475.77 | |
| SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -6.57% | +0.87% | 27.27 | 28.69 | |
| ASML | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -5.24% | -0.12% | 1555.72 | 1598.06 | |
| QCOM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -2.06% | +0.20% | 162.26 | 167.70 | |
| AVGO | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | -1.17% | +0.71% | 360.53 | 385.19 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | FRESH | +0.02% | +0.48% | 193.21 | 198.53 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -3.21% · Δ 30m +0.95% · px 386.29 (prev 399.09) → close +2.01% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short NVDA (other: TSMC evacuated staff from its Kumamoto, Japan fabrication plant following a magnitude 7.1 earthquake, raising immediate concerns about operational continuity and supply chain disruptions.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short NVDA exiting 2026-07-28] → close +0.58% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -3.21% · Δ 30m +0.95% · px 386.29 (prev 399.09) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.