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🚨 Alert #1014 Tue Jul-28 15:42:07

TSMC says Japan plant gradually resuming operations after earthquake
finance.yahoo.com · Tue Jul-28 15:24:11 published · Tue Jul-28 15:42:07 alerted · alerted 17m after publish · read at finance.yahoo.com ↗ · other · mat 65

TSMC has begun gradually resuming operations at its Kumamoto, Japan facility following a magnitude 7.1 earthquake, confirming structural safety and personnel well-being.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

tickerdirectionverdictsince close30mday loday hiintraday px
primary TSM bullishPRICED-4.12%-0.66%381.24395.36
MU bullishPRICED-10.13%-0.04%774.65848.99
AMD bullishPRICED-9.04%-0.52%444.02475.77
SMCI bullishPRICED-7.38%+0.25%27.2728.69
ASML bullishPRICED-5.12%+0.19%1555.721598.06
QCOM bullishPRICED-2.25%+0.46%162.26167.70
AVGO bullishPRICED-1.87%+0.01%360.53385.19
peer NVDA bullishREPRICING-0.46%+0.64%193.21198.53

🧭 Decisions

strategytickeractionsiderationale
S1TSM○ skipverdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.12% · Δ 30m -0.66% · px 382.65 (prev 399.09) → close +2.98%
S2-○ skipno counterparty in universe
S3NVDA● enter▲ longverdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long NVDA (other: TSMC has begun gradually resuming operations at its Kumamoto, Japan facility following a magnitude 7.1 earthquake, confirming structural safety and personnel well-being.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S1 short NVDA decision 4057]
S4TSM○ skipverdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.12% · Δ 30m -0.66% · px 382.65 (prev 399.09)

📈 Trades

strategytickersideqtyentryexitP&L $status
S3NVDA▲ long5195.79196.01+1.10closed

Retrospectives

tickermfemaereflection
NVDA S3+0.11%+0.11%

Signal: nominally right — price rose from entry and the trade closed +0.22% — but the trade was cut short by an offsetting S1 short signal, so the bullish TSMC-repricing thesis was never really tested over its intended horizon. Timing: the data can't settle whether the move had already happened; the stock was slightly down on the day at entry, and there's no evidence the earthquake-recovery news was still unpriced. Exit: the exit captured essentially everything available (best unrealized +0.11%, exit gain ~+0.11%), so nothing was left on the table within the trade's brief life — the dominant factor here is the early netting-out against a contradictory signal, which makes this trade uninformative about the entry rationale itself.

📖 Glossary

  • S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
  • S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
  • S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
  • S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
  • Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
  • UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
  • PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
  • REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
  • FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
  • materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.

← #1013 · #1015 → · 📅 2026-07-28 day report