🚨 Alert #872 Mon Jul-27 17:00:35
Internal Meta research revealed in court shows parental controls on Threads fail to reduce teen compulsive use, complicating the company's defense in an ongoing federal addiction trial.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short META (regulatory: Internal Meta research revealed in court shows parental controls on Threads fail to reduce teen compulsive use, complicating the company's defense in an ongoing federal addiction trial.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | META | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short META at close, exit next close (regulatory: Internal Meta research revealed in court shows parental controls on Threads fail to reduce teen compulsive use, complicating the company's defense in an ongoing federal addiction trial.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 65 short (decision 3736) for S4 META exiting 2026-07-28] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | META | ▼ short | 1 | 601.20 | 593.93 | +7.27 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| META S1 | +1.29% | -0.08% | Signal: correct. The bearish call played out — META fell from 601.20 to 593.93, and the entry price above the prior close (+1.01% on the day) suggests the move had not already happened; the short caught the decline rather than chasing it. Exit: near-optimal. Best unrealized was +1.29% (~$7.76 on the entry price) and the trade banked +$7.27 (~1.21%), capturing nearly all of the available move with essentially no adverse excursion (-0.08%). Dominant factor: a correct directional signal, cleanly timed and cleanly exited — this trade worked as designed on all three dimensions. One caveat: the data doesn't show whether the stock kept falling after exit, so whether the exit left further downside uncaptured can't be settled here. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.