🚨 Alert #851 Mon Jul-27 15:21:05
TSMC reported record Q2 profits, raised 2026 revenue guidance and capex, and confirmed 5-10% price hikes for 2027, while facing potential Chinese export controls involving Qualcomm.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | -1.42% | -1.10% | 389.53 | 410.60 | |
| peer AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -5.41% | -2.40% | 478.36 | 538.04 | |
| NVDA | · unclear | PRICED | -2.86% | -0.93% | 195.52 | 208.69 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | PRICED | -2.31% | -3.08% | 28.67 | 31.08 | |
| AAPL | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.32% | +0.68% | 333.66 | 339.17 | |
| counterparty QCOM | ▼ bearish | REPRICING | +1.03% | -0.74% | 165.74 | 170.94 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | REPRICING | -0.03% | -1.18% | 375.12 | 391.58 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long TSM (guidance: TSMC reported record Q2 profits, raised 2026 revenue guidance and capex, and confirmed 5-10% price hikes for 2027, while facing potential Chinese export controls involving Qualcomm.) |
| S2 | QCOM | ○ skip | — | inferred short contradicts tape: QCOM +1.03% since prev close → close +0.63% |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close +0.08% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (guidance: TSMC reported record Q2 profits, raised 2026 revenue guidance and capex, and confirmed 5-10% price hikes for 2027, while facing potential Chinese export controls involving Qualcomm.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 397.04 | 398.76 | +3.44 | closed |
| S4 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 398.66 | 394.11 | -9.10 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +0.73% | -1.94% | Signal: Directionally right, but barely — the stock recovered only +0.43% and first sank to -1.94% unrealized, suggesting the bullish repricing thesis had little force behind it. Notably, price was already down -1.42% from prior close at decision time despite the strong news, hinting the market had digested (or discounted) the guidance, though the data doesn't show when the news actually broke relative to entry, so timing can't be fully settled. Exit: Reasonably good — +0.43% captured against a +0.73% best available, so roughly 60% of the peak. The dominant factor was a weak signal: the trade spent most of its life underwater against a thesis that predicted a strong bullish repricing, and the eventual gain was small relative to the drawdown risked. |
| TSM S4 | +5.70% | -4.35% | Signal: Mixed at best — the position saw +5.70% unrealized at its peak, so upward movement did occur, but on the strategy's defined close-to-close horizon TSM finished down 1.14%, making the signal wrong as measured. Timing: Entry came after a -1.42% dip from the prior close, so the trade wasn't chasing an already-completed move; the data doesn't show whether the pre-entry weakness reflected the news being faded or unrelated pressure. Exit: This is the dominant factor. The trade held through a +5.70% peak (roughly +$45 unrealized on this position) and exited at -$9.10 — nearly the full available gain was given back before the mechanical next-close exit, and the realized loss sits much closer to the worst unrealized (-4.35%) than the best. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.