overnight drift: long ASML at close, exit next close (earnings: ASML Can't Keep Up With 2027 or 2028 Demand. Is It the Best AI Stock to Buy Now? - AOL)
Signal was wrong: the rationale called for a bullish move on a positive-sounding demand article, but ASML fell about 1.74% from entry (1671.89 → 1642.79), never rising more than +0.49% before sliding toward the -1.85% low. Timing is partly implicated — the stock was already +0.80% above the prior close at decision time with the last 30m flat, suggesting any article-driven pop had largely occurred before entry — though the data can't confirm whether the article itself caused that earlier move. Exit was near the worst point (-1.74% realized vs -1.85% worst), but with only +0.49% ever available on the upside, there was little to capture; the dominant factor is the wrong directional call, not exit mechanics.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
