overnight drift: long ASML at close, exit next close (earnings: ASML Beats Expectations as Demand Remains Strong) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 90 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 29920) for S4 ASML exiting 2026-10-15]
Signal was wrong: the rationale called for a bullish repricing on the earnings beat, but the stock closed the trade down 2.56% from entry at its worst and the exit at 1667.15 (-2.56%) is essentially the trough — price never sustained the predicted direction. Timing doesn't look like the culprit: entry at 1710.9 was below the prior close (-0.47%) and only modestly off the +1.79% last-30m bounce, so the trade wasn't chasing an already-completed move. The exit captured the worst of what was available — the position reached +1.27% unrealized before reversing, and the -43.75 USD realized P&L sits at the full worst-unrealized mark; the dominant factor is a failed directional read (the beat did not produce the bullish repricing), with the exit landing at the maximum drawdown as a secondary sting.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
