kingfisher — alert #7400

🚨 Alert #7400 Wed Oct-14 13:00:28

ASML expects demand to exceed capacity through 2028, raises sales outlook

theglobeandmail.com · Wed Oct-14 12:10:55 published · Wed Oct-14 13:00:28 alerted · alerted 49m after publish · read at www.theglobeandmail.com ↗ · guidance · mat 81

ASML expects demand to exceed capacity through 2028, raises sales outlook

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary ASML	▲ bullish	FRESH	-0.39%	+0.18%	1635.40	1728.44
NVDA	▲ bullish	FRESH	-0.54%	-0.14%	217.89	228.35
counterparty TSM	▲ bullish	FRESH	-0.50%	+0.21%	422.55	443.57

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	ASML	○ skip	—	verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long ASML (guidance: ASML expects demand to exceed capacity through 2028, raises sales outlook) [skipped: duplicate theme — already queued S1 long ASML exiting 2026-10-14] → close -2.54%
S2	TSM	● enter	▲ long	verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (guidance: ASML expects demand to exceed capacity through 2028, raises sales outlook)
S3	-	○ skip	—	no peer in universe
S4	ASML	○ skip	—	overnight drift: long ASML at close, exit next close (guidance: ASML expects demand to exceed capacity through 2028, raises sales outlook) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 81 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 29920) for S4 ASML exiting 2026-10-15]

📈 Trades

strategy	ticker	side	qty	entry	exit	P&L $	status
S2	TSM	▲ long	2				failed

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.