Signal: Weakly right at best — the price was 354.13 at exit versus ~353.39 implied at decision time (+0.19% over 352.72), so GOOGL did drift up, but only ~0.2%, and the catalyst was a biweekly "Week In Review" roundup, which the journal labels FRESH but the material here doesn't settle whether the M&A item was actually new to the market.
Timing (dominant factor): The fill at 356.32 was ~0.8% above the decision-time price — the move the trade was chasing happened between decision and entry, so the position was long from a local high and immediately underwater (worst -1.23%, best only +0.60%).
Exit: The exit at -0.61% landed roughly midway between best and worst unrealized; it didn't capture the brief +0.60% but also avoided the full -1.23%, so the exit was mediocre rather than the problem — the entry slippage/late fill is what turned a marginally correct call into a loss.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.