kingfisher — alert #7292

🚨 Alert #7292 Mon Oct-12 17:10:26

TSMC to get 6th straight record profit quarter

manilatimes.net · Mon Oct-12 17:05:00 published · Mon Oct-12 17:10:26 alerted · alerted 5m after publish · read at www.manilatimes.net ↗ · earnings · mat 88

TSMC to get 6th straight record profit quarter

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary TSM	▲ bullish	REPRICING	-1.01%	+0.38%	444.03	456.59
NVDA	▲ bullish	REPRICING	-1.08%	+0.43%	224.45	229.56
counterparty AAPL	· unclear	REPRICING	+1.01%	+0.18%	336.66	341.98

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	TSM	○ skip	—	primary long contradicts tape: TSM -1.01% since prev close → close -0.70%
S2	AAPL	○ skip	—	direction unclear for AAPL → close +0.19%
S3	-	○ skip	—	no peer in universe
S4	TSM	● enter	▲ long	overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC to get 6th straight record profit quarter)

📈 Trades

strategy	ticker	side	qty	entry	exit	P&L $	status
S4	TSM	▲ long	2	445.58	444.78	-1.60	closed

Retrospectives

ticker	mfe	mae	reflection
TSM S4	-0.06%	-1.80%	Signal: The predicted upward overnight drift didn't materialize — TSM closed next day at 444.78 vs. 445.58 entry (−0.18%), essentially flat-to-down, so the direction was wrong, though marginally; the rationale is an anticipatory headline ("to get 6th straight record quarter"), and nothing here shows whether the actual report hit or what the stock's reaction was, so whether the thesis was priced-in versus simply not reacting isn't settled by this data. Timing: No run-up had occurred — the stock was down 1.01% on the day at decision time, and the fill (445.58) came in another ~0.7% below the decision-time price (~448.65 implied), so if anything entry was at a weaker level than planned, which rules out "move already happened" as the problem. Exit: The trade never went positive (best unrealized −0.06%, worst −1.80%), and the mechanical next-close exit at −0.18% captured close to the best available, so exit execution is not the issue. Dominant factor: signal — the expected post-earnings drift simply didn't show up.

ticker

mfe

mae

reflection

TSM S4

-0.06%

-1.80%

Signal: The predicted upward overnight drift didn't materialize — TSM closed next day at 444.78 vs. 445.58 entry (−0.18%), essentially flat-to-down, so the direction was wrong, though marginally; the rationale is an anticipatory headline ("to get 6th straight record quarter"), and nothing here shows whether the actual report hit or what the stock's reaction was, so whether the thesis was priced-in versus simply not reacting isn't settled by this data.

Timing: No run-up had occurred — the stock was down 1.01% on the day at decision time, and the fill (445.58) came in another ~0.7% below the decision-time price (~448.65 implied), so if anything entry was at a weaker level than planned, which rules out "move already happened" as the problem.

Exit: The trade never went positive (best unrealized −0.06%, worst −1.80%), and the mechanical next-close exit at −0.18% captured close to the best available, so exit execution is not the issue. Dominant factor: signal — the expected post-earnings drift simply didn't show up.

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.