overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC set for sixth straight record profit on AI chip demand - Cryptopolitan) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 84 long lost to mat 88 long (decision 29168) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-10-13]
Signal was wrong: the rationale called for a bullish move on the record-profit story, but TSM went nowhere positive after entry (best unrealized only -0.06%) and drifted down to a -1.53% exit. Timing is not the issue — pre-entry price context was essentially flat (+0.19% vs prev close, +0.12% last 30m), so the move hadn't already happened; the stock simply never rallied. The exit captured roughly the full worst unrealized (-1.59%), so the loss wasn't exacerbated by exit handling — the dominant factor is a failed directional call on a widely anticipated earnings headline, though whether the article was already stale/priced-in before the decision isn't settled by the data here.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
