verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long AAPL (other: Tim Cook Says He Is Not Directing Apple CEO John Ternus' Work | TokenPost) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S2 long AAPL exiting 2026-10-08] → close -0.15%
Signal was wrong: the overnight-drift long predicted upward continuation, but AAPL fell from 339.87 to 336.68 (−0.94%) by next close, giving back the entire prior-day gain and finishing just under the 336.78 previous close. Timing compounds this — the stock was already up +1.35% on the day and +0.51% in the final 30 minutes at decision time, so the entry chased an extended move with no fresh catalyst (the cited headline is an unrelated management-commentary piece, not a drift driver). Exit was neutral-to-decent given the rule: the mechanical next-close exit landed at −0.94% versus a best unrealized of only +0.23% and worst of −2.64%, so there was never meaningful upside available and the rule avoided the trough; the dominant factor is the signal failure — this was a bad directional call on an already-extended name, not an exit problem.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
