Signal was wrong: the overnight-drift long on AVGO predicted an upward move, but the stock fell from 376.53 to 359.07 (−4.6%), with the best unrealized gain only +0.05% — the trade never meaningfully went in its favor. Timing isn't really the issue here, since the prior-day context (−1.13% from prior close, flat last 30 minutes) doesn't show a move that had already run ahead of entry; the position simply went against the thesis from the open. The exit at next close captured essentially the full available move, which was almost entirely downside (worst −5.06% vs. realized −4.6%), so the dominant factor is the signal: the earnings-headline drift direction was wrong, and the mechanical exit did roughly what it could.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
