Signal is the dominant factor, and it's bad on its face: the cited article is about OPCH, CEG, and NKE — nothing in the rationale links it to GOOGL, so the bearish short was effectively unsupported, and the trade finished against the direction (price rose 346.85 → 347.60, −0.22%). Timing can't be faulted from this data: GOOGL was only +0.49% on the day with a flat last 30 minutes, so there was no sign the predicted down-move had already occurred before entry. Exit landed near the middle of the range — the position saw +0.58% in its favor at best and −0.61% at worst, so the −$1.50 close neither captured the available gain nor took the full drawdown; the data doesn't say what triggered the exit, so whether a better exit was realistically reachable isn't settled here.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
