overnight drift: short GOOGL at close, exit next close (regulatory: Exclusionary abuses: Where do we stand after Google Android?) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 81 short lost to mat 89 short (decision 26012) for S4 GOOGL exiting 2026-10-06]
Signal was wrong: the rationale called bearish on a regulatory headline, but GOOGL rose from the 344.24 short entry to 346.09 (+0.54%), and the entry context (-0.29% since prev close, flat last 30m) shows no selloff was underway, so this wasn't a case of the move having already happened — it simply went the other way. The headline itself reads as a retrospective legal commentary ("Where do we stand after Google Android?") rather than new enforcement, which is consistent with the market shrugging it off, though the journal doesn't contain enough to confirm the "FRESH" verdict was mislabeled. Exit was reasonable relative to what was available: the best unrealized was only +0.39% and the worst -1.07%, and the realized -0.54% loss sits between them — nothing meaningful was left on the table, so the dominant factor is the signal, not timing or exit.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
