verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AAPL (earnings: Nvidia Gets Another AI Demand Signal As Foxconn Sales Hit Record High - Apple Faces Holiday Test)
Signal: Right — AAPL rose after entry and the trade never went underwater (worst unrealized +0.16%), though the rationale is thin: the headline is about Nvidia/Foxconn, with Apple mentioned only as "facing a holiday test," so the bullish AAPL read is a stretch rather than a direct catalyst. Timing: Not late — price was down 0.49% from the prior close and still drifting lower in the last 30 minutes, so entry caught a dip before the move, not after it. Exit: This is the dominant factor — the trade reached +1.25% unrealized but closed at +0.17% (+$1.65), capturing roughly one-eighth of the available move; the data doesn't show when or why the exit triggered, only that it left most of the gain on the table.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
