Signal: The dominant issue is that the rationale doesn't apply to the instrument at all — the article is about Burford Capital and litigation finance, with no stated link to AAPL, so this short had no genuine bearish thesis; the tiny gain (+0.07%) is noise, not a correct prediction. Timing: AAPL was already up ~0.85% from the prior close at decision time, and the entry filled at roughly that level, so no bearish move had occurred before entry — the trade simply sat in a narrow range (+0.14% / −0.23%). Exit: The exit captured about half of the best unrealized (+0.14%) and avoided the worst (−0.23%), which is fine in isolation but immaterial given the range; the data here cannot distinguish skill from chance on exit, and the trade should be classed as a mis-attributed news signal.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
