overnight drift: long MU at close, exit next close (earnings: Micron is about to do something that would surprise most Magnificent 7 investors - AOL) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 73 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 25280) for S4 MU exiting 2026-10-05]
Signal was wrong: the rationale called a bullish repricing, but MU fell about 2.2% from the 1099.5 entry to a 1074.83 exit, and the best unrealized gain while open was only +0.23% versus a -2.47% worst — the stock essentially never went the predicted way. Timing isn't the issue: the price context at decision time showed MU slightly down (-0.23% from prev close, -0.57% over the last 30m), so the entry wasn't chasing a move that had already happened; the direction simply didn't materialize. On exit, the -24.67 USD loss (~-2.24%) landed near the worst unrealized (-2.47%), so the exit captured almost the full drawdown rather than the brief +0.23% that was available — but the dominant factor is the failed directional call, not exit mechanics; the data here doesn't show whether the underlying article (a non-specific "would surprise investors" teaser) ever had a real catalyst behind it.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
