verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMD (m&a: AMD's World Labs Buyout Boosts AI Prospects: Can It Rival NVDA & AVGO?) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, conflict-hold — mat 90 ties incumbent S1 short AMD, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close +1.45%
Signal: Right — AMD closed the next day +0.79% above entry (617.06 vs 612.25), so the long overnight-drift call on the World Labs M&A headline paid off. Timing: The decision-time context showed AMD down −0.76% on the day (not extended), but the fill at 612.25 was +0.72% above prev close, so roughly 1.5% of upside was given up between decision and fill; whether the news itself was already priced in before the decision isn't settled by this data. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit captured about half of the +1.59% best unrealized (~+9.7 on one share vs the +4.81 realized), after the position also dipped as far as −1.59% intraday — the dominant factor here is a correct directional signal partially eroded by the entry-fill slippage versus the decision-time price.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
