Signal: the thesis was an indirect read-through (an HPE/Vultr order treated as bearish for SMCI), and the stock only briefly cooperated — it dipped as much as +1.30% in the short's favor before reversing to -0.90% against, so the direction was right for a window but never showed sustained follow-through, which is consistent with a weak, second-hand catalyst rather than a confirmed repricing. Timing: the stock had already dropped 2.54% in the 30 minutes before the decision and the fill at 41.02 was flat to the prior close, so a chunk of whatever bearish move existed had occurred pre-entry; whether that 30m drop was news-driven or just intraday noise isn't settled by this data. Exit: the dominant factor — the exit at 41.22 (-0.49%, -$4.80) captured none of the +1.30% that was available and landed closer to the worst point (-0.90%) than the best, turning a trade that was briefly right into a small loss.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
