Signal: Wrong over the hold — TSLA closed the trade ~1.1% above the short entry, and the rationale itself is thin: a comparative opinion piece ("Rivian vs. Tesla") labeled as earnings doesn't describe a fresh bearish catalyst, so the "FRESH/bearish" verdict looks like a stretch rather than a trade-worthy signal. Timing: Price at decision was flat vs. prev close (352.90), yet the fill came in at 350.03, about 0.8% lower — so a chunk of the downside was already gone by fill; whether that gap is slippage or a delayed fill isn't settled here. Exit: Poor — the trade was +1.05% at its best but was closed at −1.14%, essentially at the worst unrealized (−1.25%), giving back the entire favorable excursion. Dominant factor: a weak, non-catalyst signal, compounded by an exit at the bottom of the range.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
