verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (m&a: NVIDIA Launches Record $150 Billion Buyback Amid AI Cash Flow Confidence) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, netted, outranked by S3 short NVDA mat 89 (new mat 80)] → close -1.39%
overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (m&a: NVIDIA Launches Record $150 Billion Buyback Amid AI Cash Flow Confidence) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 80 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 23356) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-09-30]
Signal was wrong and is the dominant factor: the thesis shorted GOOGL off an NVIDIA buyback headline — a tenuous, cross-ticker link with no stated bearish mechanism for Alphabet — and GOOGL rose ~0.8% from entry, never offering more than +0.06% unrealized. Timing compounded it: GOOGL was already down 1.23% from the prior close when the decision was made, so the short was entered after a decline, near the low, and the position rode the mean-reversion back toward the prior close. Exit was near the worst of the range (-0.81% realized vs. -0.96% worst, +0.06% best), so it didn't capture anything, but there was essentially nothing to capture — the loss is attributable to the direction call, not the exit.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
