verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (other: NASDAQ opens higher as chip stocks drive gains after brutal selloff) [closed early: netted out by outranking S3 short NVDA decision 23579]
overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (other: NASDAQ opens higher as chip stocks drive gains after brutal selloff) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 83 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 23356) for S4 NVDA exiting 2026-09-30]
Signal: Nominally right — price finished +0.18% above entry — but the move while open never exceeded ±0.35% in either direction, and the position was truncated before the "chip rebound" thesis had any real test, so the data here doesn't settle whether the bullish call was correct over its intended horizon. Timing: The move the article describes ("opens higher") had already happened by decision time (+0.56% vs prev close, with the last 30m slightly negative), and the fill at 230.11 was right at that level, so entry was chasing a completed open rather than anticipating it. Exit: The dominant factor is that this was not a strategy exit at all — the trade was netted out by an outranking short (decision 23579); it happened to capture +0.18% of the +0.31% best unrealized, which is fine mechanically, but the P&L is noise from a forced close rather than a verdict on the FRESH/bullish signal.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
