Signal: Correct — AAPL fell from 333.75 to 329.21 after the short, and the worst drawdown was only -0.12%, so the bearish call on the verdict headline played out cleanly.
Timing: Partly late. At decision time the stock was only -0.47% from the 338.40 prior close (~336.8), but the fill came at 333.75 — roughly another -0.9% slipped away between decision and entry, so about 40% of the total decline observed here happened before the position was on. Whether the news was already fully priced before that isn't settled by this data.
Exit: Near-optimal — the +9.08 (~+1.36%) captures essentially all of the +1.38% best unrealized. The dominant factor is a correct signal executed well; the only leakage was decision-to-fill slippage on entry.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.