Signal: Marginally right on net (+0.11%), but the ±1% symmetric range while open shows MSFT never committed to a direction on this story — the data doesn't confirm the "Anthropic $518B buildout → MSFT bullish" thesis actually moved the stock rather than ordinary intraday noise. Timing: Not chased — price was flat-to-slightly-down (-0.14% on the day, -0.19% last 30m) at decision, so the move hadn't already happened. Exit: This is the dominant factor: the trade saw +1.00% unrealized and closed with roughly a tenth of that (+0.54 USD), so the exit captured almost none of what was available, while also having sat through a -1.10% drawdown that nearly matched the upside — a weak-conviction round trip whose small profit is closer to luck than to captured edge.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
