verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long AMD (other: Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Fair Isaac, SpaceX, AMD & more) [closed early: netted out by outranking S1 short AMD decision 23793]
overnight drift: long AMD at close, exit next close (other: Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Fair Isaac, SpaceX, AMD & more) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 81 long lost to mat 90 long (decision 23924) for S4 AMD exiting 2026-09-30]
Signal: Not settled — the position saw +1.46% in its favor and −1.14% against it before being closed early, and since the close was forced rather than price-driven, the data doesn't show where AMD went after the exit. Timing: The entry came after AMD was already up ~1.2–1.4% from the prior close (607.87 → 615.16) on a premarket "biggest movers" headline, so a meaningful chunk of the news reaction was in the price before the fill. Exit (dominant factor): The trade was netted out by a higher-ranked opposing short signal, not by any price rule, and that mechanical close locked in −0.61% when +1.46% had been available while open — the loss is attributable to the conflict-resolution exit, not to the thesis being disproven.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
