🚨 Alert #5827 Tue Sep-29 13:00:37
Warning issued over Tesla battery system 'fire risk' - is yours affected?
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short TSLA (regulatory: Warning issued over Tesla battery system 'fire risk' - is yours affected?) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short TSLA at close, exit next close (regulatory: Warning issued over Tesla battery system 'fire risk' - is yours affected?) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 73 short lost to mat 77 short (decision 23644) for S4 TSLA exiting 2026-09-30] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ▼ short | 2 | 356.70 | 353.04 | +7.32 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S1 | +1.39% | +0.31% | Signal: Correct — the short was taken bearish and TSLA fell ~1.0% from fill to exit, so the direction call held (whether the battery-warning article actually drove the move can't be established from this data). Timing: At decision time the stock was still up (+0.52% vs prev close, +0.21% in the last 30m), so the move had not already happened; however, the fill at 356.70 was roughly 0.7% below the implied decision-time price (~359.3), meaning some of the drop occurred between decision and fill — the journal doesn't record the fill delay, so how much was missed is unsettled. Exit: Realized +1.03% against a best unrealized of +1.39% and a worst of +0.31% (the trade was never underwater), so the exit captured about three-quarters of what was available. The dominant factor here is simply a correct signal on a trade that went one way from the start; the exit left a modest ~0.36% on the table. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.