🚨 Alert #5472 Fri Sep-25 13:00:42
Nvidia and AMD reported strong earnings with Nvidia guiding to $108B Q3 revenue driven by Vera Rubin shipments, while AMD began shipping its Helios rack with a $13B Q3 guidance.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.61% | -0.10% | 223.35 | 226.53 | |
| AMD | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.90% | 0.00% | 626.27 | 641.99 | |
| peer AVGO | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.54% | +0.21% | 349.64 | 356.00 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.24% | +0.07% | 195.69 | 205.77 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.14% | -0.24% | 1074.33 | 1106.25 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.03% | -0.08% | 449.25 | 456.33 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (earnings: Nvidia and AMD reported strong earnings with Nvidia guiding to $108B Q3 revenue driven by Vera Rubin shipments, while AMD began shipping its Helios rack with a $13B Q3 guidance.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already queued S1 long NVDA exiting 2026-09-25] → close -0.26% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AVGO | ○ skip | — | inferred long move already absorbed: AVGO +1.54% since prev close → close -0.77% |
| S4 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (earnings: Nvidia and AMD reported strong earnings with Nvidia guiding to $108B Q3 revenue driven by Vera Rubin shipments, while AMD began shipping its Helios rack with a $13B Q3 guidance.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | NVDA | ▲ long | 4 | 225.39 | 228.47 | +12.32 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S4 | +3.36% | -1.06% | Signal: right — NVDA rose from 225.39 to 228.47 (+1.37%) over the hold, consistent with the post-earnings drift thesis. Timing: entry was only +0.61% above the prior close when decided (+0.36% at fill), so the overnight move had not already happened by entry; whether the earnings release itself was already fully priced before that session isn't determinable from this data, since the article's publication time relative to the entry isn't given. Exit: the fixed next-close exit captured +1.37% of a +3.36% peak (roughly 40% of the best available, against a shallow -1.06% worst) — the dominant factor here is a correct signal, with the mechanical time-based exit giving back about 2% of unrealized gain before close. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.