Sun Oct-18 16:03:55
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🚨 Alert #5422 Thu Sep-24 17:30:29
TSMC begins 1.4nm pilot production: next-gen chips move closer
TSMC has commenced pilot production of its 1.4nm semiconductor process, with volume manufacturing targeted for 2028.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +0.43% | +0.50% | 440.01 | 452.13 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.89% | +0.18% | 192.33 | 200.39 | |
| NVDA | · unclear | FRESH | -0.94% | +0.44% | 221.60 | 224.52 | |
| AMD | · unclear | REPRICING | +0.76% | +1.39% | 596.40 | 630.36 | |
| counterparty AAPL | · unclear | FRESH | +0.26% | +0.39% | 334.97 | 338.49 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long TSM (product: TSMC has commenced pilot production of its 1.4nm semiconductor process, with volume manufacturing targeted for 2028.) |
| S2 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AAPL → close -0.56% |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (product: TSMC has commenced pilot production of its 1.4nm semiconductor process, with volume manufacturing targeted for 2028.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 75 long (decision 21552) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-09-25] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 448.80 | 450.54 | +3.48 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +0.80% | -0.31% | Signal: Correct — the bullish call played out; price rose ~0.39% from entry and never dropped more than 0.31% against the position. Timing: Only a modest pre-move (+0.43% on the day, +0.50% in the prior 30m) had occurred by entry, so the trade wasn't badly late, though whether the "repricing" was already largely priced in from earlier sessions can't be determined from this data. Exit: The exit captured roughly half of the available upside (+0.39% realized vs. +0.80% best unrealized) — the dominant factor here is exit efficiency: a correct, reasonably timed signal that banked about 50% of the peak move. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.