🚨 Alert #5258 Wed Sep-23 13:00:40
Microsoft is offering 30% to 50% discounts on Copilot subscriptions for large corporate customers and preparing to launch a revamped Copilot super app to accelerate adoption.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MSFT (product: Microsoft is offering 30% to 50% discounts on Copilot subscriptions for large corporate customers and preparing to launch a revamped Copilot super app to accelerate adoption.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for GOOGL → close -3.81% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long MSFT at close, exit next close (product: Microsoft is offering 30% to 50% discounts on Copilot subscriptions for large corporate customers and preparing to launch a revamped Copilot super app to accelerate adoption.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 short (decision 21268) for S4 MSFT exiting 2026-09-24] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ▲ long | 1 | 503.26 | 500.06 | -3.20 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT S1 | +1.06% | -1.39% | Signal: Partially right — the stock did move up to +1.06% after entry, so the bullish read wasn't wrong, but the edge was thin and didn't hold. Timing: This is the dominant factor. MSFT was already up ~1% from the prior close on the news by decision time, and the fill at 503.26 was even higher — the trade chased a move that had largely happened. Exit: The exit at -0.64% (-$3.20) gave back the entire +1.06% best unrealized gain, though it did avoid the -1.39% worst case; there was modest available upside that wasn't captured. The data doesn't show why the exit occurred (stop, time, or discretion), so whether the exit rule or just adverse drift is to blame can't be settled here. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.