🚨 Alert #5072 Mon Sep-21 13:11:59
Microsoft reported Q4 FY2026 earnings with Azure revenue growing 43% and EPS beating consensus by $0.50, prompting analysts to raise price targets despite the stock trading sideways.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MSFT (earnings: Microsoft reported Q4 FY2026 earnings with Azure revenue growing 43% and EPS beating consensus by $0.50, prompting analysts to raise price targets despite the stock trading sideways.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S3 short MSFT decision 20431] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMZN → close +1.24% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long MSFT at close, exit next close (earnings: Microsoft reported Q4 FY2026 earnings with Azure revenue growing 43% and EPS beating consensus by $0.50, prompting analysts to raise price targets despite the stock trading sideways.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 long (decision 20628) for S4 MSFT exiting 2026-09-22] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ▲ long | 2 | 493.87 | 493.00 | -1.74 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT S1 | +0.64% | -0.34% | Signal: Partly validated — the trade reached +0.64% unrealized, so the bullish read had some traction, though the data doesn't show whether MSFT ultimately followed through after the close. Timing: The entry came after only a +0.46% move off the prior close with the stock described as trading sideways, so there's no evidence the move was already spent; timing looks acceptable. Exit (dominant factor): The trade was closed not on price but by being netted against a conflicting short signal (decision 20431), exiting at -0.18% — near the worst unrealized (-0.34%) and giving up the +0.64% that was available. The mechanical early close, not the thesis, drove the loss. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.